By Joaquin Muns

This ebook comprises papers awarded at a seminar in Vina del Mar, Chile, lower than the sponsorship of the crucial financial institution of Chile, the Federico Santa Maria collage, and the IMF. Reprinted in 1985.

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Additional resources for Adjustment, Conditionality, and International Financing: Seminar on the Role of the International Monetary Fund in the Adjustment Process

Sample text

The economics of the determination of the current account balance are quite different from the economics of the determination of the narrow definition of the balance of payments. The two are not, however, completely unrelated because the financial policies of the central bank may influence the income and expenditure decisions of the public and private sectors. Although the determinants of the current account balance will not be addressed in the paper, some thoughts on the relationship between recent current account difficulties and the central bank policy of fixed exchange rates are presented in the last section.

6 28 LINDA M. KOENIG long-term debt only, 25 percent. By comparison, the same ratios in 1982 were 32 percent and 24 percent, respectively. A forecast incorporating the adjustment targets of the countries that have entered into Fund-supported stabilization programs and the staff's broad assumptions regarding the policies which other Western Hemisphere countries will follow in 1983 (subject to the constraints of capital availability and international reserve positions) points to a continued contraction in the combined current account deficit of the region—to approximately $23 billion—with a further small contraction, of 2 percent, in total import value.

The combined current account surplus of the oil exporting countries is projected to remain negligible, while the combined deficit of the non-oil developing countries is projected to contract further. This further narrowing of the non-oil developing countries' current account deficit assumes the successful pursuit of major adjustment programs in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and a number of smaller Western Hemisphere countries. It is interesting to note that the improvement in the combined current account position of Western Hemisphere countries was responsible for one third of the fall in the aggregate current account deficit of the non-oil developing countries in 1982 and for over two thirds of the further contraction forecast for 1983.

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